Asia Pacific Destination Forecasts 2019-2023

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Note: Price above is for per destination report. Corporate members include Allied Partners (National), Aviation – Levels I & II, Corporates (International & Multinational), Governments – Level I, Governments - Level II (National), Content Partners, Preferred Partners, Premier Partners, Strategic Partners.

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Following the release of the “Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2019-2023”, a new suite of 39 destination-specific reports are now built on those predictions by delving deeper into the changing dynamics of travel and tourism, in and across the Asia Pacific region.

Each of the 39 reports covers a specific destination in Asia Pacific with the following objectives:

  • Systematically model and forecast quarterly and annual visitor arrivals to each destination and forecast annual visitor arrivals from the major source markets in Asia Pacific;
  • Estimate the income and price elasticities of tourism demand;
  • Highlight key visitor trends over the forecast period of 2019-2023 and comment on the implications of these trends;
  • Analyse and interpret the implications of monthly scheduled air flights and seats; and
  • Where data availability allows, forecast the aggregate visitor receipts using advanced time-series methods.

In addition, and again where data availability allows, this new series of reports also reviews the forecast arrival numbers from each source market into specific Asia Pacific destinations, giving a perspective on changing demand preferences for international travellers from those source markets.

Inbound air seat capacity, for example, shifts relatively quickly according to demand. Therefore, understanding where these shifts are occurring for the nearly 880 million scheduled inbound air seats expected into Asia Pacific destinations in 2019 is a powerful barometer of potential demand that can translate into increased arrivals.

It is especially useful to see the difference in those capacity shifts between the total changes and Low-Cost Carriers, between origin and destination.

As a specific example, the average annual growth rate (AAGR) in total scheduled inbound air seats into Asia Pacific was 5.4% between 2015 and 2019, and yet Vietnam had an AAGR of close to three times that rate and Lao PDR more than double. Again, understanding these changes in air seat capacity deployment is something that is particularly useful, as it signals possible changes ahead of the fact, and can minimise any lamenting on lost opportunities, after the fact.

An understanding of the elasticities of both income and prices is similarly useful for the destinations. For example, the sensitivity of a particular inbound market to price changes in a destination may hold strategic value in determining price-based programmes for that inbound market. Income sensitivity also shows how markets may react to changes in their own relative incomes and again provides a metric worth valuing in better understanding a potential source market. Such data are also useful in understanding the competitive position of destinations relative to the same source market.

While this new series of reports has been specially designed for use by National Tourism bodies, they also have direct applicability into both inbound and outbound operators. Covering 39 distinct markets in the Asia Pacific region, each report provides quantifiable insights into the actual and projected travel flows across the region, for use in the strategic and marketing planning processes. They are available to Government Level I and Corporate members as a member benefit.