Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2020-2024
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This latest edition of the PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts covers the period 2020 to 2024 and is available in two volumes, both of which continue with the recognition of international visitor flows (as distinct from tourist flows) so as to give greater consideration to the much wider impact of tourism and tourism-related industries across destinations in the Asia Pacific region.
In addition, and in order to take future uncertainties into account over the forecast period, a series of interval forecasts is given, within which the baseline forecasts lie, as well as demand and price elasticities for select source markets.
Key highlights of the 2020 edition which covers 39 Asia Pacific destinations, include:
- Aggregate annual growth in international visitor arrivals (IVAs) into 39 destinations across the Asia Pacific region is expected to be around 4.6% in 2019, reaching a combined inbound volume of more than 715 million.
- This adds an additional 31.5 million international visitor arrivals to the aggregate count in the process, over the 683.8 million received in 2018.
- By the end of 2024 it is estimated that almost 972 million IVAs will be received across these Asia Pacific destinations, suggesting an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of around 6.3% between 2019 and 2024.
- Over this same period, the AAGRs will however, vary considerably across each of the Asia Pacific regions, ranging from seven percent for Asia, to around 4.4% for the Americas and 3.8% for the Pacific.
- Within the Americas these AAGRs will vary from a low of 2.7% for North America through 25.4% for South America (Chile), and a strong 7.8% for Central America (Mexico).
- Across Asia, the AAGRs will vary from a low of six percent for Northeast Asia through 7.5% for West Asia, 8.5% for Southeast Asia and 10.8% for South Asia.
- The sub-regions of the Pacific are expected to show AAGRs of 1.2% for Polynesia, to 2.2% for Micronesia, 4.6% for Melanesia and 5.9% for Oceania.
- Of the arrivals into each of the Asia Pacific regions, intra-regional flows are forecast to remain strong. Almost 53% of the IVAs into the Americas are predicted to originate from within the Americas in 2024, while more than 83% of the IVAs into Asia are likely to come from Asian source markets in that same year. The Pacific is expected to see its intra-regional arrivals proportion remain steady at just under 18% in 2024, but with more than 40% of its IVAs coming from Asia and 31% from the Americas.
- Overall, the origin markets of Asia are expected to account for almost 68% of all IVAs into this collective of 39 Asia Pacific destinations in 2024, an increase in its relative share position of 2.8 percentage points since 2019.
This publication is provided in two separate volumes at a single price.