Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2019-2023
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This latest edition of the PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts covers the period 2019 to 2023 and is available in two volumes, both of which continue with the recognition of international visitor flows (as distinct from tourist flows) so as to give greater consideration to the much wider impact of tourism and tourism-related industries across destinations in the Asia Pacific region.
In addition, and in order to take future uncertainties into account over the forecast period, a series of interval forecasts is given, within which the baseline forecasts lie, as well as demand and price elasticities for select origin markets.
Key highlights of the 2019 edition which covers 40 Asia Pacific destinations, include:
- Aggregate annual growth in international visitor arrivals (IVAs) into 40 destinations across the Asia Pacific region is expected to be a little under eight percent in 2018, reaching a combined inbound volume of more than 688 million.
- This adds an additional 49.6 million international visitor arrivals to the aggregate count in the process, over the 638.6 million received in 2017.
- By the end of 2023 it is estimated that a little under 900 million IVAs will be received across these Asia Pacific destinations, suggesting an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of around 5.5% between 2018 and 2023.
- Over this same period, the AAGRs will however, vary considerably across each of the Asia Pacific regions, ranging from 6.2% for Asia, to around 4.4% for the Pacific and 3.1% for the Americas.
- Within the Americas these AAGRs will vary from a low of 2.6% for Central America through 2.8% for North America, and a very strong 9.5% for South America (Chile).
- Across Asia, the AAGRs will vary from a low of 5.0% for Northeast Asia through 7.8% for South Asia, 8.1% for Southeast Asia and 8.2% for West Asia.
- The sub-regions of the Pacific are expected to show AAGRs of 2.2% for Polynesia, to 4.3% for Micronesia, 5.9% for Oceania and six percent for Melanesia.
- Intra-regional flows are forecast to remain strong for the Americas and Asia, reaching 59% and close to 82% respectively in 2023. The Pacific is expected to see its intra-regional arrivals proportion remain steady at just over 18% in 2023, but with 41% of the IVAs in that year coming from Asia and 30% from the Americas.
- Overall, the origin markets of Asia will account for 66% of all IVAs into this collective of 40 Asia Pacific destinations in 2023, an increase in its relative share position of close to 2.3 percentage points since 2018.
This publication is provided in two separate volumes at a single price.